Alexander Hay

Feb 28, 2018

2 min read

Are we close to WW III? The Middle East is looking unusually dangerous.

News from the Middle East is not good. We are getting closer to a war. A war that might involve more than just the Middle East. https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20180228-three-israeli-warplanes-breach-lebanese-airspace/#.WpY0FGjlo_w.facebook

  • The Iranians are massing troops on the Israeli border.
  • The Israelis are responding with deployments of their own.
  • The Russians are increasing their presence in Syria.
  • The US is increasing its attacks and activity in Syria.

The Israelis have a real problem: They cannot maintain the current level of defensive deployments — if the Iranians do not back down the Israelis are going to have to launch a preemptive attack. This could trigger many unpleasant things.

Any miscalculations by any party could result in catastrophe.

In 1914 WW I started because of miscalculations and a bizarre triggering event. It’s just these sort of miscalculations that I fear. Or perhaps even intentional insanity is to be feared. Many in the Iranian leadership are part of a sect that believes paradise will only come to earth after an Armageddon type war. Iran is now much more dangerous than they were before. They probably have several nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them. The Saudis and the Israelis probably cannot rely on the Iranian leadership not to use them. In fact there is a very good chance they are already deployed in Syria. The Saudis have ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons. So far there is no evidence they have obtained nuclear warheads; that doesn’t mean they don’t have them. The Israelis clearly have nuclear capabilities that can reach Iran.

And this is only taking into account the Iranian side of things. The problem is that everyone, including the Iranians and the Arabs, thinks the Israelis never make mistakes. That Israel never miscalculates. Or even worse never has a cause to actually seek a confrontation for reasons that may be related to domestic political issues.

Another data point: Netanyahu is under investigation for criminal fraud. Could a nice little dust-up on the border save his political career and distract from the accusations that could very well result in jail time, perhaps even allow the case to be buried? https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/21/israeli-media-netanyahu-confidant-to-testify-against-him.html

The conflict between the USA and Russia in Syria is becoming more dangerous. Russian mercenaries attacked US ‘forces’ and elements within the USA are itching to escalate the confrontation into a hot war. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/23/trump-must-respond-to-deadly-russian-aggression-commentary.html

I suspect similar agitators exist in Moscow.

I am not claiming any psychic abilities here (I do occasionally show psychotic abilities but that’s another issue), I am just offering my analysis of some possible risks based upon all the data I have available.

We are living in dangerous times.

Alexander Hay is a US lawyer now living in Tbilisi, Republic of Georgia. Some have accused him of being a curmudgeon, but what do they know???? Noisy kids!

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