The world is getting to be a scary place… Will China and India be Able to Keep the Peace?
The world is filled with crazies.
- Russians want to recreate either the Soviet Union or Mother Russia depending on which flavor of tyranny is in fashion.
- Turks are dreaming of recreating a new Ottoman Empire with a grand sultan ruling from decadent palaces in Byzantium.
- Arabs are beguiled by the idea of reversing a thousand years of cultural decline and recreating a new Caliphate to dominate the Middle East.
- Iranians fantasize about a new Persian Empire stretching from North Africa to Central Asia.
Megalomania seems to have taken hold of much of the world.
At the same time Western Europeans have decided to slip off into that dark night… ready to fade away into an oblivious European Wonderland of decadence, dependency and suicidal despondency.
Americans are not far behind.
The only nations that seem to have kept their focus are India and China. Will they be able to stand against these threats? Or even worse can they avoid the temptations of both forms of narcissism; overt megalomania or suicidal despondency?
Europe is lost. The collapse of Western Europe into dhimmitude may very well mark the descent of global civilization into a new dark age.
What has happened to the concept of a peaceful world? Pax Americana was not perfect but it kept the sea lanes open, countries that wanted to become or remain free were assisted (to a point), Western ideals of liberty, justice, fairness, etc. were promoted where possible, etc.
With the collapse of Western Europe and the abandonment of the world by the USA, there are now chaotic power vacuums where once there was order. China and India must be very unhappy about the prospect of uncontrolled nuclear arms races around the globe, and perhaps nuclear war in the Middle East. I also don’t see them very happy about the potential rise of a xenophobic and paranoid Russia attacking imagined enemies at every turn.
Both China and India want to see the world open up to trade and investment, particularly their trade and investment. They are both interested in participating in various development projects around the world, but do they have the stomach to enforce peace in order to protect their interests?
I think the answer is a pretty clear no. I have read a number of articles about China being surprised by the sudden American abandonment of its role as global policeman. They had rather hoped that the USA would continue to act as a “fair cop” and keep things calm around the world while China moved in and set up shop. Now China and India must make a decision: do one or both step up and start playing tough, or wait for someone else to deal with the problems and face the possibility of losing all the progress of the last 40 years.